26 aug 2008, Simon Strandgaard
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Risks - What can go wrong?
Top 10 is the most common problems.
- » too warm, unable to think. (daily problem in the summer)
- » loud noise when windows is open that makes it impossible to think. (daily problem in the summer)
- » too little sleep or too much sleep (common problem).
- » creeping requirements.
- » underestimating the time and effort required.
- » neighbours play loud music that makes it impossible to think and sleep. (frequent problem)
- » local-accidents: fire, my computers is dead, illness, robery.
- » extern-accidents: paypal, webhosting, servers, adsl company, backup-problem.
- » fail to stay focused.
- » making a bad release, so users run away.
- » failure to plan.
- » failure to follow the plan that has been created.
- » failure to revise the plan when project circumstances change.
- » run out of cash.
- » unforeseen expences: new computer, ensurance, advertisement.
- » targeting a wrong group of people not interested.
- » competitors that comes the market before us.
- » marketing fails.
- » insufficient knowledge about customers.
- » loosing the customer database, so MOMS and license-key is fucked.
- » people talking bad about the product.
- » customer-skeptisism: they see I'm a single person, and thinks that its safer to buy when there is 40 people behind it.
- » wrong pricing: if its too cheap then people think what a piece of crap. if its too expensive then they find alternatives.
- » released software has low quality.
- » somebody steals the source code.
- » backup doesn't work when screwed.
- » loosing my gmail account.
- » cracker exploits website services (wordpress, phpadmin, punbb, php, mysql, paypal).
- » apple introduces serious incompatiblities in osx.
- » the program cannot run on apple's new hardware.
- » forget to pay for the opcoders domain.
- » key used to sign license-keys is stolen.
- » a crack is made that can disable license-verification.
- » Dennis and Simon gets mad at eachother (because we havn't settled how to divide the money, tasks, resources)
- » fuckup in the accounting.
- » forgetting to report SKAT/MOMS before the deadline.
- » fuckup in source-code so that things cannot compile.
- » fake-companies that sends bills for odd services.
Risks - Other timewasters
I think I use too much time on sparetime activities.
- » at least 33% of my life is spend on sleeping.
- » christmas.
- » vacation.
- » parties.
- » buy food.
- » watch movies.
- » doing laundry.
- » internet browsing.
- » clean up appartment.
- » see the family.
- » primitive needs.
- » hesitation, lazines, procrastinate.
- » worry about the job.
Reducing risk, how?
How much budget/time should I allocate for resolving risks?
In top 10 there is 3 problems related to my appartment: it's too warm and too noisy. This can be solved by moving to another appartment. But a move to another appartment is not what I need right now, it takes time/money/effort that I cannot afford right now.
Incidents
The 14 Jan 2007 Incident - mac-mini goes to repair
I could not turn on the computer. Support said that I should reset the PMU, by disconnecting all cables, then press the power button while inserting the power-cable, and then release the power button, and finally press/release the power button. Now the machine started, but the fan was operating at max speed and the LED was turned off. I guess its a power-glitch caused by stormy weather.
The day before I had prepared my old mac-mini so that my sister could take over the machine. To provide her with more than 4 Gb diskspace, I had removed everything including apple SDKs. And now I have borrowed it back from my sister otherwise I would die.
They said that a typical repair would worst case take 14 days, however it took 20 days and they couldn't reproduce the problem! Since it isn't fixed, it might show up again one day. Humac is supposed to be an Apple Premium Reseller (APR), but they sux. Next time I better pick another place to get my things fixed.
This was a huge set back and major tasks has been delayed by ~3 weeks. Now I seriously consider buying an extra mac for redundancy, just in case.
The 16 Apr 2007 Incident - fire in basement
Sick maniac sets fire to my neighbours storage room in the basement, so many of my things is sooted. If the fire hadn't been discovered then my home and worst of all my dear computer could have been destroyed!
The basement needs to be reworked and all of my things needs to be moved to a temporary location. It will probably case me a few days of work. So it's just a minor delay.
Follow up: It probably took me 7 days of full time work, but that includes a complete clean up of the basement. It was a major delay.
The 7 Sep 2007 Incident - washing machine destoys my clothes
I live in an appartment block, where the washing machines are shared between the people living in the same block. Today used 2 washing machines. When the wash were finished and I were to pick it up, I could see that the clothes from machine#4 was in a really bad condition. Half of the most used things from my wardrobe is now unusable.
I am affraid that this will be very expensive, because I supect that the ensurance company doesn't cover clothes washed in a shared washing machine. Plus it's gotta take forever to find new clothes. This is a bad day for me. It will probably take a few serious days of power shopping and it will for sure cost me a hell lot of money. The clothes were old and has lost it's value, but replacing it all with something brand new that's expensive. In Denmark: 3 pair of pants cost at least 1000 kroner, 2 shirts for 500 kroner, underwear, socks, tshirts, bed linen, sheets. Maybe 3000 kroner (550 USD) will do, maybe not.
Ok things is good now, having washed my clothes one more time. I were really worried, it appeared that I were in trouble. This incident only took a 2 hours more than a usual wash, that was much cheaper than predicted.
As you can see shit happens too often! All I want is just to writing programs all day long, without worrying about administration and terrible incidents.